The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S have been on the market for four years, and with the rumored "Nintendo Switch 2" on the horizon, the console industry is poised to enter its tenth generation. However, recent reports suggest that as competition in the home console market intensifies, only one gaming company may successfully contend with Nintendo's next-gen console. 
This insight comes from DFC Intelligence's latest annual market report and forecast. DFC notes that with Nintendo's upcoming new console and the release of major titles like "Grand Theft Auto VI," the gaming industry is finally moving past the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The firm projects that industry revenue will hit an all-time high in 2025.
DFC also boldly predicts that by 2027, the global gaming population will surpass 4 billion, approaching half of the world's total population. Furthermore, Nintendo is expected to become the "dominant force" in the next-generation console market. With its new console launching earlier than PlayStation and Xbox, Nintendo will not only gain a significant head start but also enjoy a considerable competitive advantage. 
Consequently, DFC believes that when PlayStation and Xbox launch their tenth-generation consoles around 2028, only one of them will be able to effectively compete with Nintendo. This assessment is based on the premise that the market can realistically sustain only two major console systems. With the Nintendo Switch 2 arriving earlier, either Sony or Microsoft will face a challenging competitive landscape, relegated to third place—or potentially even forced to exit the hardware market entirely. 
Of course, it's currently difficult to predict which of the two—PlayStation or Xbox—will withdraw from the next-gen console hardware race, as factors like pricing, launch dates, and performance will all play crucial roles. However, as most players know, PlayStation holds a vast array of gaming IPs and a massive, loyal user base. Given these advantages, DFC suggests that Microsoft faces a relatively higher risk in this regard.
What if Microsoft Fails?
In fact, as early as January this year, foreign media reported that Microsoft, in a strategic move to focus on digital game marketing, not only laid off employees from its Xbox physical game development division but also shut down the entire department.
Therefore, even if Xbox were to unfortunately falter in the tenth-generation console competition, it wouldn't significantly impact Microsoft, which has already shifted its focus to digital games and streaming services. Instead, it would further highlight its long-term strategy centered on software and services. 
"While Microsoft's performance with the Xbox Series X/S has been underwhelming, through major acquisitions, Microsoft has become the world's largest publisher of game software. This means Microsoft no longer has to rely on the hardware market and can instead focus on developing the software market," said David Cole, founder and CEO of DFC Intelligence.
"Over the past 30 years, the video game industry has grown more than 20-fold. Despite a downturn in hardware and software sales in the last two years, the industry is poised for new growth over the next decade." 
"While 2025 will mark the beginning of this growth trend, several critical questions remain. For instance: Who will lose in the next-gen console battle? And who will emerge victorious in this commercial competition? Furthermore, as major game publishers increasingly focus on the service-based market, this also creates more opportunities for smaller studios to rise."
When Will the Nintendo Switch 2 Be Released?
As for the long-rumored Nintendo Switch 2, while Nintendo has yet to provide a definitive release date, Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa officially announced that information regarding the Nintendo Switch 2 will be revealed within the current fiscal year—which concludes by March 2025.
Based on this timeline, the Nintendo Switch 2 might not launch until mid-2025, and even that remains the earliest speculative timeframe.
via： VGC